How the Game Ends

May 2, 2019 by Francisco Castillo

Around this time of the year, approximately 17 million Americans tune in every Sunday to watch another episode of the last season of Game of Thrones. Many more millions perform the same ritual in another part of the world. The story has caught many people’s attention for its unusual and unorthodox way of developing and ending the characters.

With the proliferation of streaming, it has become rare to wait and tune in at a specific hour, at a particular day of the week, only to fulfill a continuation of a story that has started. This lands on the other side of the spectrum of dumping all episodes of a TV series all at once and give the viewers the choice to exercise their back-to-back-to-back watching techniques. You can sleep later.

With the traditional, one episode per week format, the viewers can not only review and re-watch multiple times before the next one comes, but they can also analyze, synthesize, and hypothesize on the future of the story. It may be natural human behavior to take the momentum of something and estimate its future trajectory. The intriguing part is why everyone who has reached a conclusion on the future of the story desperately needs to voice it out to the crowds. Like having found the map to the treasure and feeling the urge to share it with the rest of the castaways who are in the same position as yourself.

Is it to show that you are better than the rest at this one thing?

Predicting the future is fun, but it is close to impossible. That is probably one of the many reasons why it looks fun. It can also become an intellectual pursuit. Many fans around the world analyze and dissect every minute of every episode of every season, every chapter of every book written on the story, every interview with the author, director, producer, main characters, extras, every book written by the novelist. Once this is done, they compile and contrast all that body of knowledge to attempt the impossible; To know exactly, before everyone else, what is going to happen in the next episode. Once you reach what it seems to be a reliable conclusion of the forecast for next week’s episode, you formalize it by way of sharing it through a major social media channel. Otherwise it only exists in your mind.

Is greater glory achieved if your predictions materialize correctly by the end of the Suns day. What happens if the forecaster misses on one or two? What if the forecaster misses on all of them?

How is this related to investing?

The capital markets had caught many people’s attention for their unusual and unorthodox way of developing and ending their market cycles. Needless to say, it is also attractive because it is perceived as a rare yet feasible conduit to get very rich very fast.

More than just money, for many people it becomes an intellectual pursuit to “beat the market”. Investors get every annual report of every company in every industry, every circular and white paper of relevant associations, institutes, foundations, and universities, they hear every earnings call, they watch every available interview with the CEO, CFO, COO, CMO, CIO, CTO, chairman, directors, employees, customers, suppliers, commentators, they ask their barber, they ask their carsharing driver, and then compile and contrast all that body of knowledge to attempt the impossible; To know exactly, before everyone else, what the market is going to do next.

Some investors get conviction in their forecasting conclusions and proceed to invest AND tell the whole world about what they have discovered. Others may reach forecasting conclusions and tell the whole world about it with such conviction that you may think they bet their fortune on them even though they may have not invested a dime of their own money.

What happens if the forecaster misses on one or two? What if the forecaster misses on all of them?

Interestingly enough, for hits and misses in the markets, investors only remember their hits with such glory, but forget their misses as soon as the opening bell rings the morning after. This is easy to perform thanks to the vast array of psychological biases that interplay constantly in people’s minds. If you hit the mark, confirmation bias, but you can still take the glory. If you missed the mark, well you can always say that the market is such a complex animal with so many variables that it is very difficult to predict.

So, is it really necessary to pursue that indomitable quest to predict the future? Whether it is for Game of Thrones or for the real Game of Thrones, does it really add value?

Instead, can we listen to the meditations of Marcus Aurelius, follow his advice and Limit yourself to the present. Fully focused on what is happening now, we can experience the present with more awareness, ready ourselves and act accordingly. You may still feel the urge to want to know what happens before it happens, but certainly, you will still enjoy the show.

After all, it may be more profitable to focus on this present moment, listen, observe, utilize your skills marked by a circle of competence and then act accordingly. Otherwise, you could endlessly be chasing the future that will never be fully here.